WHAT IS THE AFTERLIFE LIKE? There is no doubt that Emanuel Swedenborg was a man of immense knowledge, and also unusually smart. After all, it was he who first established that our Sun is one of the stars of the Milky Way, and thoughts flash in the crust cerebral hemispheres brain - in

November 8, 2006, Moscow, Main Intelligence Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation Opening speech dedicated to the opening of the new headquarters of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation

Attempt on the life of the head of the self-proclaimed “LPR” Plotnitsky. Increased intensity of shelling. The rhetoric of “hurray-patriots” in Russia and Ukraine, calling for “a decisive offensive and victory.” Crisis in diplomatic relations between Russia and Ukraine. Mutual incitement to hostilities. The rapid decline in popularity both among the leadership of the “DPR” and “LPR”, and among the Kyiv elite - the drop in ratings is compensated by the belligerence of conversations in the face of impoverished people. There is a complete feeling of an approaching catastrophe - a full-scale war in the center of Europe. Those who like to shed blood (not their own) incite the parties against each other, hinting at a quick and final victory...

She won't be there. Neither side will win. There will be a massacre with tens of thousands of dead.

Unrecoverable losses

The events of mid-summer in Ukraine and in the rebel “republics” of Donbass cannot be called anything other than an escalation.

A month and a half ago, President Poroshenko, speaking at the National Guard training center, promised to quickly resolve the issue of sending its rapid reaction brigade to the front line for “testing in combat.” At the same time, OSCE observers in Ukraine reported a sharp increase in armed confrontation in Donbass. A couple of weeks later, with a difference of three days, the head of the state institute strategic studies, assistant to the Ukrainian president Vladimir Gorbulin and deputy head of the Russian Foreign Ministry Grigory Karasin at a meeting with the ambassadors of France and Germany.

On July 6, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine announced that it was developing measures in the event of a full-scale invasion of the country, including strengthening work with reservists. There are even plans to create a base for the partisan movement in the occupied territories. At the same time, the highest ranks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces usually refer to the self-proclaimed “DPR” and “LPR” as occupied territories.

On July 23, Rada deputy Nadezhda Savchenko spoke in favor of centralizing power in Ukraine and the need for a “harsh hand” for Ukraine. Immediately, a discussion began in the leading media, which was started by the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Turchynov: a fair number of experts, deputies, current generals and not the last rank of officials literally demand the introduction of martial law throughout the country. And one Rada deputy from the Poroshenko bloc even named the date of its introduction - Monday, August 1.

If only everything was limited to verbal interventions! All these prophecies are confirmed daily by reports from the “DPR”/“LPR” and the ATO zone. According to our sources, the aggravation began after June 29. Then the Ukrainian motorized infantry, with the support of tanks, captured two key heights in the Debaltsevo area. At night, “DPR”/”LPR” troops transferred reserves to this area and restored the status quo the next day. Six rebels were reported killed, and imminent losses on the Ukrainian side are unknown. Almost at the same time, full-scale fighting began in the industrial zone near Avdiivka, where our correspondents visited, and then along almost the entire demarcation line.

What will happen if the big war returns? What forces are opposing each other on both sides today? How many will be wounded and killed? Are intense battles possible in large cities? Will opponents be able to achieve their goals and under what circumstances?

We asked all these questions to the commanders of the newly rebuilt DPR/LPR army. According to many of them, too much of society in Russia and Ukraine today is inclined to complacently assess the prospects for a full-scale war, which politicians predict. Public opinion in the rear, despite the inappropriateness of such an expression, adapted to the ongoing losses in reports from Donbass. While civilians in the battle zone and professional soldiers (in this case in rebel enclaves) view it as a huge disaster.

Two employees of the Russian special services who observed the situation in the “DPR”/“LPR” personally and based on intelligence reports agreed to comment on the combatants’ opinions. The editors use for analysis officially published data and statements of senior military officials and officials of Ukraine. We have not yet received equally frank answers to these questions from the Ukrainian military. But in future history Donetsk war, which is being created before our eyes through the efforts of journalists from the leading countries of the world, this material, without a doubt, will also appear.

Those killed after the battle for Donetsk airport. 2014. Photo: Maria Turchenkova

In contrast to the period of active hostilities, which were covered by many Ukrainian, Russian and foreign journalists on both sides, today the situation in the armed forces of the “DPR” and “LPR” is almost unknown to the general public. Meanwhile, the transformation has taken place on a grand scale, and this is perhaps the most important circumstance affecting the future of Donbass, which is being discussed in Kyiv, Moscow and the capitals of the Normandy Four.

In January-July of this year, during business trips, we met with experienced combatants. Many of them have Soviet and Russian military schools and academies behind them, and after the disarmament of the militia units, they ended up in the formed First and Second Army Corps of the “DPR”/“LPR” army, signed contracts and are now official military personnel of these unrecognized state entities. Some hold leadership positions there. We asked them to speak about the past, present and future of the armed conflict in Donbass from a purely professional point of view.

“LPR”/“DPR”: to whom does the army obey?

Initially, people from military intelligence were involved in the process of formation of government bodies in the “LPR”, and counterintelligence and security forces in the “DPR”. This has given rise to differences in approaches to management. Thus, the “LPR” does not have a Ministry of Defense. Coordination of actions and communication with the Second Army Corps created in this territory is carried out by Plotnitsky’s assistant with a small apparatus. Plotnitsky did not have any personal detachments of militants.

In the “DPR,” on the contrary, a Ministry of Defense was created in an attempt to take control of scattered militia units. The Ministry rather maintained the appearance of centralized control, trying to organize interaction between these units.

Soon after the beginning of 2015, many completely detached militia commanders were killed or sent into retirement. Russian and Ukrainian media had no doubt that these military leaders were eliminated with the assistance of Russian intelligence services, although there were no facts directly indicating this. After this, the functions of the DPR Ministry of Defense became completely decorative.

Later, with the creation of the First and Second Army Corps of the “DPR”/“LPR”, some former commanders were included in their composition. These armed forces live a life completely independent of politicians, not reacting to attempts to imitate their leadership. And such attempts do take place.

The difference in approaches to governance, laid down by the “founding fathers” of both republics, resulted in serious political and economic consequences: unlike Plotnitsky in the “LPR”, the leader of the “DPR” Zakharchenko really gained a lot. According to our sources, he and his inner circle are most actively seizing the property and business of fellow citizens who have left for territory controlled by Ukraine. In June, commanders of the DPR/LPR army began openly talking about real estate in Spain acquired by top officials from Zakharchenko’s entourage over the past year. In the spring, an officer from one of the special services, who regularly visits the DPR to meet with agents and monitor the situation, described the situation this way.

the story of a special services officer who regularly visits the “DPR”

— Zakharchenko remained a bandit. The scale of tasks in managing a city of millions, often critical, did not lead to an increase in the scale of the individual. He is unteachable. The other day, while drunk, I punched a cook in the face in a restaurant. In the morning, without explanations or warnings, having missed the meeting that he was supposed to lead, he went to make peace and apologize. This is his level.

By the beginning of this year, a significant part of the large stores in Donetsk and the region were nationalized and managed by Zakharchenko’s wife. The cargo of humanitarian convoys from the Russian Federation is distributed with the participation of Zakharchenko. A considerable part of these products are then sold in his wife’s stores. At the same time, Rinat Akhmetov’s “humanitarian aid” completely reaches the recipients on the ground.

This is why control over the “army” is so important for Zakharchenko: by losing the opportunity to use force, he risks losing both power and the family business.

Clinging to his powers, the political leader of the “DPR” constantly gave birth to administrative and military initiatives. Back in early 2015, he unexpectedly gave the order to launch an attack on Mariupol. It was a pure gamble, an attempt to start a massacre, to draw as many troops as possible on both sides into it, so that it was no longer possible to jump out of the battle. However, most commanders refused to obey Zakharchenko, and the initiative collapsed just as suddenly.

The mediocre, unprepared assault on Marinka, organized by Zakharchenko in early June 2015, led to losses: more than 30 people killed and more than 100 wounded. In the last year, such savages no longer happened - the “DPR” government finally lost the ability to control the army.

The Ministry of Defense of the “DPR” is headed by a certain Kononov, nicknamed Tsar, a famous militant, former sambo coach and small businessman. He became famous for the fact that he and his beloved traveled along the runway of the Donetsk airport in a tank, inviting Ukrainian artillery fire on themselves. Those were trips for adrenaline, nothing more. This psychological baseboard limits his talents in organizing the defense of the unrecognized republic. Let us only add that the Ukrainian artillerymen, in response to the challenge of this risky man, used to start a duel, which often turned into shelling of residential areas of the city.

— Many militia commanders did not rush motherland to protect, but to “squeeze out” enterprises, cafes, restaurants and hotels. 90% of partisan commanders eventually came to this form of supplying their troops.

There was a case: due to the peculiarities of the operational plan, one brigade for the defense of Debaltsev was transferred from the Second to the First Army Corps. She was known for collecting bribes from drivers for driving on the roads she protected. The commander there at that time was the Tsar’s brother. He was removed in the traditional way back in the USSR: he was sent to the corps for promotion.

Since part of the money went to the Tsar, he took the liquidation of the feeding trough very painfully. And he answered asymmetrically. The king recorded the commanders' conversations various parts The first corps (often obscene) with impartial assessments of their leadership. And then he wore them to the corps commanders and to his acquaintances in the special services. These intrigues were partially successful - competitors were sometimes removed from their positions. Next to these passions, the situation in the LPR, where Plotnitsky, without much PR or visible results, is trying to resume the work of factories under sales guarantees from Russia, seems almost pastoral.

How adequately do politicians in Moscow assess the situation in the “LDPR”? This can be judged from this episode.

An official delegation from Russia, which arrived on a visit to Donetsk, accompanied humanitarian aid. A man who introduced himself as Rogozin’s assistant then decided to offer Zakharchenko a commercial project: to open a chain of Magnit stores on the territory of the “DPR.” The answer from the local elite came eloquently: “Are you friends with your head? Zakharchenko, whose wife has a monopoly on all large stores in the region, will create a competitor for himself with your help? You look like serious men, but you talk with childish enthusiasm.”

Although, of course, Russia tried to support the self-proclaimed republic not only top level. Ordinary people also participated.

The story of a command staff member

— Some civilians contacted our military ( From Russia . — Ed.) with the following sentences: “We propose to prepare your artillerymen as professional specialists on firing. We're pros."

“Okay, come on over, let’s talk about what’s what,” the locals answer. Three fancy ones arrived. We have already fought there, they say. We are ready to assist you in training specialists for spotting and artillery reconnaissance.

“Excuse me,” the responsible officials of the DPR army ask, “what is your basic education?”

- I'm a mechanic. But it is not important.

— Did you serve in the army?

- No, I didn’t serve.

The commander who participated in the conversation

“At first I didn’t even understand that they were offering it for money. Then everything turned out to be completely funny. There was a lot of interesting things in the DPR/LPR then from the point of view of criminal business. Well, these only made it to the final analysis and received nothing. No hotels, no restaurants. So they wanted a roof to be made for them, and under it they would enter our territory. It turned out to be a brother.

Defeat the army of thugs

Military reform in the enclave, according to our interlocutors, was a measure that was both forced and belated. On the eve of the bloody battles in the Debaltsevo area, the future strategic advantage of the Ukrainian Armed Forces no longer raised any doubts among the local military (unlike politicians). There was no longer any hope for the scattered militia detachments, the logistics of which were organized by the commanders using openly gangster methods. But the political situation in the self-proclaimed republics did not allow the construction of an army to begin “according to science” until the winter of 2014/2015.

The organization of the First and Second Army Corps made it possible to build a more professional defense in case of a sudden Ukrainian offensive. The first building, located in the “DPR”, is larger both in terms of area of ​​responsibility and staff. The total number of the entire group is 30-32 thousand people. On the other side of the demarcation line they are now opposed by up to 90 Ukrainian battalion tactical groups (about 100 thousand people). The leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has trained troops and sharply increased the fleet of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) - the main means of army reconnaissance in this war.

The story of a command staff member

​— On the territory of the DPR/LPR immediately after the end of the war there were many military formations, each of which sought to maintain its own prisoners of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. And they made money on the exchange. Ukrainians ransomed prisoners for an average of $10,000. Mainly relatives, of course. What to say? Practical banditry.

Motorola, as far as I know, did not indulge in this, but Givi did. Also, the Cossacks and the GRU DPR are complete scum. Imagine, they even sold the bodies of dead guys from the Ukrainian Armed Forces. They collected them directly from the field and kept them in strange refrigerators. Bodies with documents were especially valued. We contacted relatives: do you want to bury yours humanly? And this is a practice not only in 2014; all this chaos occurred sporadically even after the operation near Debaltsevo in 2015. It was so.

The creation of a DPR/LPR army corps formation began in December 2014 partly because of this. And at the beginning of 2015, when the massacre began in Debaltseve, they had not even been formed yet. Previously it was impossible to carry out this reform. But by April 2015, we managed to disarm about 40 units. This is approximately 70% of the personnel who took part in the defense of the republics. And the Chechens were there, and whoever else was not there.

Four-fifths of these gangs disarmed voluntarily. The last one was Troy. Even their patron came from Russia to negotiate the surrender of weapons, because they formed a unit for Kobzon’s visit, as a security detachment, that is, for a short time. Well, Kobzon left, but the detachment remained.

They talk a lot about themselves, but if you seriously recheck their exploits, it turns out that they really didn’t do anything useful, only robberies and looting behind them. 50% of the team were volunteers from Russia. The command of the First Army Corps called their commander Bely five times for a conversation and offered to keep their unit in the corps after sifting out the slag. We tried to give someone a chance. But later, about eight of them were kicked out in disgrace from the first territorial defense battalion of the First Army Corps for drug use. 18 people are now in the MGB, about 10 are wanted.

There are such “amateurs” on both sides. For example, four Islamic battalions have been brought up from that side in recent months. Two formed, two in formation, one purely Chechen. We have information about the battalion commander. There are also private military companies, three detachments, mostly Poles, 300-400 people. They are on duty at the forefront. There were even blacks! Well, these are isolated cases, of course. They haven't been seen for a long time.

On the Donetsk side, by the way, a detachment of the private military company “Wagner” also fought, they have now been withdrawn. Their task was to fight enemy reconnaissance and sabotage groups at the forefront.

In terms of monetary content, the situation has also leveled off. On January 20, new payments went to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. They began to divide the military into those who simply serve and those who are in the ATO zone. The last to add 1200 hryvnia(about 3100 rubles. — Red . ). And there are military personnel who are on the front line; they received 4,200 hryvnia added to their salary ( about 10,800 rubles. — Red . ). In total, on the front line, a simple soldier receives approximately 8,000 hryvnia ( about 20,800 rubles . — Red . ), and sometimes even more. For comparison: a fighter of the First and Second Army Corps today receives 15,000 rubles.

The story of the deputy brigade commander for combat training

— The material and technical supply of the DPR/LPR army in different parts is very different. Sometimes it is such that the weapons of grandfathers are used. Local DPR territorial defense battalions are positioned along the front line. They do not have ATGMs, and in order to strengthen them in anti-tank terms, the commander approved such a plan. About 50 five-round anti-tank guns were found in local warehouses ( anti-tank rifles . — Ed.) from the time of the Great Patriotic War, model 1943. To fire a shot from a sniper rifle, you must lean out. But with PTR on a bipod you don’t need anything. From 500 m it takes almost everything on board except a tank.

War correspondent " Novaya Gazeta“Yulia Polukhina wrote that in the summer of 2014, the “LPR” detachments consisted of more than 60% locals, and in the “DPR” there were units where sometimes 80% of the personnel were from visitors. Today Russian citizens from the private and non-commissioned personnel of the “DPR”/“LPR” army have practically disappeared. This is primarily due to the cessation of active hostilities and the cessation of funding for volunteers by large philanthropists. Of the approximately 32,000 personnel of the two army corps, up to 30,000 are citizens of Ukraine, which is confirmed by observations of seconded editorial staff, documents and personal testimony of our interlocutors.

About experience, past and present

story by the deputy chief of staff of the DPR/LPR army brigade

— When the detachments were formed before the Debaltsevo operation, this was the percentage: two-thirds of locals in Lugansk and more than half of visitors from other regions of Ukraine and Russia in Donetsk. About 40% of the personnel during the operation within a week threw down their weapons and fled. There were more than 2000 of them. In the Ukrainian Armed Forces, at least a third also deserted from Debaltsev.

At the first stage of this epic, the psychology was simple: I fight to the border of my city, and I don’t care what happens next. It's different now. For example, the leadership of the army corps and the Tsar became enemies because his brother’s brigade was taken away as a tool for profit. But how dramatically supply, safety, and fire control have improved! However, for some heads of the republic these are not arguments; they turn a deaf ear.

Chances of Ukraine and “LDNR”

At one time, in response to a request from the editors, the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine sent a letter confirming the permanent presence of a very large contingent of the Russian Armed Forces on the territory of the “LPR”/“DPR”. According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, we're talking about about 13,000 personnel of fully equipped units and several hundred units of military equipment for various purposes. Assuming that the Ukrainian military did not make a mistake, what does this mean from a purely military point of view?

Now those who actually controlled the military operations in Donbass have expressed their opinion. In a short retelling it is like this. At various times, a number of battalion tactical groups of formations and units arrived at numerous training grounds along the border with Ukraine. The interlocutors especially emphasized - in completely different periods and in different places. If you just collect them all in one place in one minute, then 12 thousand will not be collected. Because one battalion tactical group is a maximum of 600 people plus attached equipment units. And the largest number of them was collected on the border with Ukraine - 6 pieces (only one indicated the number 7). More than four and a half thousand people have never gathered near the border with Ukraine. And NATO intelligence knows this very well.

And if a group of 13,000 operated on the territory of Ukraine, it could easily, in any direction, be it Donetsk or Lugansk, seize the entire territory of the region within the administrative borders and liberate it from units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the shortest possible time. Even if they had overwhelming numerical superiority at that point in time.

But if this is so, then, from the point of view of professionals, did the Ukrainian army have a chance to achieve success in 2014?

— The Ukrainian Armed Forces could have eaten the partisans with porridge, but they were stupid to not directly send troops into Donetsk itself. The rebels did not have a joint headquarters, disorganization would begin. And Lugansk in general is a quarter of Donetsk. What is there to capture? But the Ukrainian leaders did not dare to surround the city, leave the humanitarian corridor, divide it into two parts and begin cleansing.

And here are the words of his colleague in the leadership of the headquarters of one of the army corps of the DPR/LPR army.

Opinion of the Deputy Chief of Brigade Intelligence

— There was a moment when the Ukrainian Armed Forces could build on their success and win completely. This is when Strelkov was still around. If only they hadn't stopped then. It is unknown why they acted hesitantly. After all, they could have taken all the main cities even without fatal losses. It was stupid to stretch the troops into such a thin sausage along the border. Capital stupidity.

Our command considers the level of planning of operations, including Debaltsevo, to be low. They were a complete mess. But they will not be like this forever; someday they will correct the situation. Although they, of course, will not push all this stupid volunteerism anywhere - the opposition will not allow it. This is a negative factor in the military development of Ukraine, which really works in favor of Donbass.

However, all our sources noted that the strengthening of the positions and combat readiness of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Lately was in full swing. Starting in the summer of 2015, the Ukrainian army gradually gained strength, and a layered infrastructure was built along the demarcation line for future military operations. A state engineering and construction enterprise with a good fleet of equipment equipped general-purpose bunkers and command posts with laid communications. Excavators removed the soil, a standard transport container was inserted into the trench, reinforced concrete floors were laid on top, which were again filled with soil. Agree, these are no longer roadblocks made of car tires, which journalists laughed at in the spring of 2014.

At the same time, according to intelligence data from the First and Second Army Corps, testimonies of defectors and deserters, the condition of the Ukrainian Armed Forces units today is far from ideal. Food is delivered to the fighters once every 5-6 days, but they eat everything in three days. There are parts where these scissors force soldiers to live on pasture: they sell scrap metal, engage in trade and smuggle goods into enemy territory. They eat up the money sent from home.

Separately, it is worth mentioning the collection of tolls on protected roads. According to local residents and drivers, this practice was recorded on the bridge near the village of Shchastya, on the roads in the direction of Maryinka, Avdeevka and Mariupol. Until recently, fighters from the “DPR”/”LPR” detachments were doing exactly the same thing on their side.

The story of a command staff member

— Despite these shortcomings, failures in supply and organization, the Ukrainian Armed Forces would still have won sooner or later if there had been no changes in the DPR/LPR army. What advantages does the regular army have over the rebel movement? When Leonidas led his detachment to Thermopylae, he met a detachment of Greek allies. An interesting conversation ensued with their commander, who boasted of the size of the detachment of 1,500 fighters. Leonid said: “Who do you have there? Craftsmen, farmers. And I have warriors.” Sometimes yesterday's schoolchildren are also recruited into the regular armed forces, but Engels correctly pointed out the advantages of organized military action using the example of the Franco-Turkish war.

To this day, the training of personnel, their equipment, the coherence of actions within the unit, the availability of military equipment, and reconnaissance devices are of paramount importance. We can imagine a partisan detachment with the same reconnaissance means. But they need to be maintained, and the militias never get around to this; they use the equipment until the first breakdown. There will never be enough such funds in a partisan detachment.

The Ukrainian army had all these advantages over scattered separatist detachments. Since Strelkov’s arrival in Slavyansk, no one in the DPR has fought beyond the outskirts of their nominal village or sought to help their neighbors. The defense of Slavyansk ended with the surrender of the city. Therefore, we do not consider Strelkov to be a skilled military leader, much less a hero.

Brigade commander's story

— The number of Ukrainian security forces in the ATO zone has never reached the levels that its political and military leadership officially announced. They added up the number of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, border guards and SBU employees. But when the leadership announces numbers, citizens of Ukraine must understand that only the Ukrainian Armed Forces are fighting. Everyone else is essentially service staff.

For today ( January-February 2016 . — Red . ) in three directions - Donetsk, Lugansk and Mariupol - up to 70 thousand employees of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are concentrated and another 30 thousand provide them. By April they must increase the grouping of Armed Forces employees to 100 thousand plus 30 thousand support ( According to Novaya Gazeta, these target figures for the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense were achieved belatedly, by the end of May. — Red . ). According to my estimates, during the peak period of fighting in the ATO zone, there were about 35 thousand military personnel, scattered in different directions. At the same time, on our side they were opposed by, at best, about eight thousand.

Moreover, Zakharchenko and his henchmen even managed to make money from these scattered detachments. For example, the locals submitted an application for 5,500 people. The corps command agreed and considered that they could be formed into a brigade and two separate assault battalions plus two special forces battalions. They began to build this whole crowd. And there are only 2500 in it. Where is the other half? After all, the money was allocated for 5500.

That is, the money was written off to no avail, but not even half of the personnel were there. When all this came to light, they began to hush up the situation, and the corps command filed a report.

It’s also a shame that we work like damned things, forming everything from scratch, and Zakharchenko’s people almost openly declare that they consider us their servants...

While differing in details, all our interlocutors agree on one thing: an offensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine is quite likely. This conviction is based on the understanding that the Minsk agreements contain two (in their opinion) impossible points. The leadership of the “DPR”/“LPR”, with the support of Russia, will not surrender the border to the control of the Ukrainian security forces. The Ukrainian leadership is unable to change the constitution in accordance with the spirit and letter of the Minsk agreements.

While differing in details, all our interlocutors agree on one thing: an offensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine is quite likely

Ukrainian society also demonstrates bellicose sentiments. They predominate for the most part in Western Ukraine and Kyiv (but soldiers are more often sent to the army by mothers from Southern and Eastern Ukraine). This very important part of Ukrainian society and an even larger part of the elite, concentrated mainly in the capital, are inspired by Russia's experience in the recent wars in the Caucasus - the peace agreements in Khasavyurt were followed by a period of accumulation of forces and the rapid defeat of the Chechen militias in the Second Chechen War. There is a great temptation to present the Minsk agreements as some kind of close historical analogue of the Khasavyurt agreements.

If a strategic operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine breaks out to liberate the Donetsk and Lugansk regions from the rebels, no one will think much. The Ukrainian army has become stronger thanks to the extraordinary efforts of the state and society, and more organized largely thanks to the help of its allies. But the First and Second Army Corps of the “DPR”/“LPR” army will be on the defensive, and no one has repealed the law of defensive battle in terms of losses. And most importantly: this new bloodshed between armies that are seasoned, not going to repeat past mistakes, extremely motivated (our journalists are convinced of this on every new mission), and have accumulated anger and ammunition, will be incomparable in its intensity even with the hottest battles of 2014-2015 ; both sides will take casualties in huge numbers.

“The Ukrainian army will have to storm us. I don't envy them"

Interview with the Deputy Commander of the DPR/LPR Army

— President Poroshenko stated that a group of Russian troops of 32,000 people was concentrated on the border with Ukraine, ready for an offensive. This is true? Is the mass of Russian troops on this side of the border a warning to the Ukrainian military or politicians?

- Where? Two battalion tactical groups are on the border today. During the recent exercises, the entire Southern District was raised, that’s true. But the district troops are standing where exactly everyone stood last years, and under Yushchenko, and under Yanukovych. Fundamentally nothing has changed. This is not the border with Ukraine at all, these are gigantic territories, almost half the size of Europe. It’s to his advantage to name such terrible figures—politician. But I assure you, this is nonsense. Well, manipulation of numbers, if you will.

It is clear that politicians must justify their inaction. They are always and everywhere looking for ways to do this. In this case, it is convenient to refer to the Russian armies on the border.

— Volunteers, united in battalions with their own symbols, also fight on the side of Ukraine. They get most of the help that volunteers collect, because they are always heard. How do their opponents in the “DPR” and “LPR” army evaluate them?

— Yes, ordinary guys from the infantry or airborne forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are not in the first place among the public, of course. Although there were no national guard battalions in any of the front ranks. If you evaluate it seriously. I can say for sure that near Debaltsevo they were not at the forefront.

Prisoners repeatedly testified that these units were also engaged in “strengthening discipline” among the rest. That is, they almost acted as barrier detachments.

Ukraine has created its own legend about the heroism of its soldiers. For example, about what happened at the Donetsk airport. In my opinion, these guys were thrown to slaughter for the sake of creating a legend. The airport has no strategic significance; there is nothing to keep there. But in order to withdraw in an orderly manner from their positions across the take-off field, they had to overcome four kilometers of clear space. When the militias pinned them down, there was nowhere to go. Almost everyone who tried to retreat died. There was a sea of ​​dead, but very small groups managed to retreat.

And to be honest, on the DPR side, no one suggested they surrender, it’s just that no one even had such powers. Scattered detachments stood around without any serious combat interaction. Who was to give up? The scumbags of this psychopath "Givi"? The defenders were simply doomed. The terminal was hit by artillery without a break; those remaining in the basement were hit with shaped charges; holes were made in the floor.

I myself was very interested in the issue of the participation of volunteer units in the operations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, I studied it. So, nowhere in the first line, on the front line, when going on the offensive, were they seriously present. Yes, according to their staffing, they have nothing heavier than a company mortar in their arsenal. Now the situation is changing. For example, the Aidar battalion is being introduced as a separate unit into the newly formed Tenth Mountain Infantry Brigade near Bila Tserkva. They plan to use it in the Carpathians; things are not going well for Ukraine there either.

But the most interesting thing is that they are all now being completely brought into line with the American structure. More precisely, the NATO structure. We have brigades and separate battalions. They don’t have that, they only have mechanized and motorized infantry brigades. There are three separate tank brigades. That is, a headquarters and infrastructure that can be quickly deployed for a specific task.

In general, we have a bad opinion of those National Guard battalions that we directly encountered as military professionals. This is not because of the personal training of the fighters, it is just no worse than average — ​we’re talking about the poor command staff of these units. They are, of course, sophisticated and give interviews often. But in reality their commanders are weak.

— In the “DPR” and “LPR” they are opposed by another army, with its own disadvantages and advantages. How would you characterize her?

— The difference between the “partisan armed forces” and what has now been created on the territory of the DPR/LPR is serious. Of course, a year is not enough for such work. Very little. But we still managed to change the worldview of the fighters by 70 percent. Only now those who are in officer positions are beginning to understand that without organization, without normal commanders, they will have nothing to catch in the future, no matter how it develops.

The gangster style has no prospects, everything will end in defeat. Therefore, now Zakharchenko has a minimal number of support votes among the local military. The big drawback today is the rotation system. After 10 months, only 45% remained to serve for the next term. The next rotation will take 90 percent. And this means all the training will be new.

Ukraine is coming to the conclusion that there will be only contract soldiers in the ATO zone. Now about 20,000 should leave there. The Armed Forces of Ukraine want 80% of them to sign contracts to continue serving ( According to official data, about 7,000 people signed contracts in the spring-summer of this year. —  ​Ed). But in terms of the specifics of their combat mission, DPR/LPR officers are undoubtedly superior to the enemy. Maybe they don’t know the rules properly or something else. But in terms of the use of technology and tactics, they will surpass the Ukrainians. Well, they have considerable authority. After all, a commander without authority is zero.

— Did this war bring anything new to military science? New experience?

— Unfortunately, no one wants to acknowledge this new knowledge and new experience. Here, for example, are the battle formations. It is already obvious that there can no longer be any linear constructions, as is found in documents based on past experience. In particular, tank units should be built in a wedge or ledge.

A tanker must see his neighbor's tank. Otherwise, it will be psychologically much more difficult for him to complete the combat mission. Simply put, he will hesitate linear construction much more. If tanks are assigned to infantry, the tank must be located next to the commander's vehicle. If a tanker lost the commander to whom he was assigned in battle, write — the matter is lost.

What we have always been taught: tanks and infantry fighting vehicles in front, infantry behind — this is no longer relevant. All tanks without infantry will be burned. Infantry ahead! And the tanks are covering it from behind. And no other way.

As for actions. Today there are rapid changes in the capabilities of fire weapons. In the Debaltsevo operation, the average consumption of ammunition was 11 wagons per day for the entire artillery group. This expenditure was determined, however, not only by the intensity of the fighting, but also by the general poor state of the means of combat. There are no new artillery systems—the wear on the barrels is enormous. It is impossible to achieve true shooting accuracy.

Our reconnaissance means are stunted, just old stuff. What are the years of manufacture? You can't look without tears. On the other side there are already AN/TPQ‑36 radars ( a modern portable counter-battery radar made in the USA, put into service in 2001. —  ​Ed.) began to appear. And we don’t even have that.

Now about the use of UAVs. It gives a lot. It's time to create a structure for them. The drone service must flow from top to bottom from unit to unit. It should be taken into account that the resource of a drone that costs a lot of money is exhausted in a month and a half. Now count how many we need for active combat operations.

But that's not all. In order to conduct reconnaissance on a UAV, it must be equipped with a wide variety of payload. Not just optics. And radar and radio equipment, which allows for reconnaissance in bad weather and determining the coordinates of objects for firing.

It is necessary to obtain good modern optical reconnaissance equipment. How much can you get by with B8 and B12 binoculars, developed in 1935?

We have practically no mining installations at all. There are wheeled and trailed minelayers, old stuff from the seventies. We need remote mining systems. In Afghanistan, petal mines were thrown from MLRS. And how many of them have remained since then? Well, the equipment we have is not the latest. Each armored vehicle has a low service life. We have already worked out 70 percent of it.

This war, of course, has its peculiarities. If hostilities begin, the winner will, firstly, be the one who delivers the most powerful fire strike against targets that he already knows in advance. And, secondly, someone who can competently link infantry actions with this fire strike. Not just infantry, but units trained for this specific case. All the same, until the infantry occupies a city, a populated area, and reaches the line, nothing will happen.

And for this we need fighters. Sorry, but the hundred-thousand-strong group that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have assembled here is not a piece of shit. For us, if we count all the bayonets, we get a maximum of 32,000. And no matter how much we force military science, in order to move to a different quality, we must first have quantity. Our advantage is that the DPR/LPR army will be on the defensive. It is the Ukrainian army that will have to storm us. The law of defensive battle is known—one in three or four. I don’t envy them, believe me, this is not bragging.

— According to the latest public opinion polls in Ukraine, 20% of the population want an immediate military victory in Donbass. This figure has decreased in just four months. Back in March there were a third of them, which is a lot. True, the closer to the ATO zone, the fewer supporters of the blitzkrieg.

- Yes, a blitzkrieg is possible, there is always a chance. The Ukrainian army today is truly completely different. But citizens (and most politicians too) do not understand at what cost this will be achieved. After all, very serious military construction was going on on this side of the border as well. They can't even imagine the scale of the losses. Those killed will not be counted in hundreds or even thousands. Because they have reached an enormous density of troops compared to the summer of 2015. The 100,000-strong group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will operate in conditions of the use of fire weapons with colossal capabilities. Today we have both military and operational reserves of ammunition no less than the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

For the Ukrainian military, if up to 60% of the supply norm reaches some groups, this is already good. I mean artillery and MLRS. After all, all storage units must undergo inspection and extension of storage periods. But this did not happen. Hence the use of unusable ammunition that does not detonate as expected and deviates much in flight more than normal and so on.

They also carried everything that was left of the arsenals of the Warsaw Pact, everything that they could collect in Bulgaria, Poland, and Romania. Despite this, I repeat, Ukraine has a chance to win. But this military success will be achieved literally with rivers of blood. Because it is practically impossible to create a grouping even in one direction without being noticed. As soon as they bring the artillery to combat positions and begin to move, we will already know. And as soon as they withdraw groupings of troops to the initial areas for the offensive, we will not expect anything. Without details.

“The Americans do not have such war experience as the Armed Forces of Ukraine”

A military intelligence officer talks about the role foreign advisers can play and reforming the Ukrainian army to fit the NATO structure

Before the campaign of Alexander the Great, the Athenian Naval League planned to capture Sicily, Southern Italy and further to Carthage. Thus, the campaign could begin to the West, and not to the East. It was Alexander who radically changed the whole plan, conquering militarily weak Persia. But if he had gone to the West, to equal opponents, it is unknown what kind of victories he would have achieved. That is, the question of the balance of forces and results achieved in military history comes first. How to evaluate the American experience in Iraq and in the Near and Middle East in general? What combat experience of modern warfare do the Armed Forces of Ukraine have today, in comparison with the NATO armies, whose instructors are training Ukrainians today? A military intelligence officer who was charged with studying it agreed to comment on this aspect.

— Will it give something to the Ukrainian troops? foreign training? Not yet. But they are supplied with very good sniper rifles; the Donbass army is inferior in this regard. They have SVD, and the Ukrainians have NATO caliber 12.7. There are also 9.3 mm with good heavy bullets. Over the past three months, the DPR army has lost at least eight people from sniper fire. Head and chest hits right on the front edge. At night they get 200-300 m closer to the positions and equip themselves with a bed. At dawn they begin to work, and when they leave, mortars fire along the front edge, covering the retreat. Therefore, many mortar exchanges, which are later announced in the media, are not spontaneous.

In order to appreciate the difference between the wars in Iraq and Donbass, you need to know the tactics of NATO and the Ukrainian army. For NATO in Iraq, everything came down to identifying centers of power and putting them out of action. These are key objects and officials. They simply determined that it was necessary to take the capital.

Iraqi troops stood in defensive positions in full combat readiness. But no one attacked them; they were rather ignored. They sent sabotage groups and units of parachute units to the rear. They gave large cash bribes to officials in the government and in the provinces, ensuring local sabotage and general passivity in decision-making, delaying the passage of commands to the troops, even blocking them.

And then, under powerful information pressure, Saddam Hussein’s army simply fled. Although the Iraqi army was considered one of the most combat-ready in the region.

Well, they're Arabs. Now let's see how they fight in Ukraine on both sides. These are the Slavs. They all have the same mentality: hold on until the last, shoot until the last bullet. This is how it will continue, that’s the simple secret of this war.

Americans do not have the same war experience as the Ukrainian Armed Forces. They did not operate under conditions of such terrible shelling. Ukrainians are much more seasoned in this sense. And those NATO sergeants who came to train the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Lviv region, in fact, did not smell such gunpowder as the Ukrainians happened to do. True, today their army is being reformed under the command system, the NATO structure. And neither the Ukrainians, nor we, nor the Americans know what the outcome will be.

Valery Shiryaev

from the editor

conclusions

From the words of Novaya Gazeta’s interlocutors, several important conclusions can be drawn.

Since the conclusion of the second Minsk agreements, the armed forces of both Ukraine and the self-proclaimed republics of Donbass have reached a qualitatively new level: today they are much better prepared to conduct full-scale military operations than a year and a half ago.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine have a multiple superiority in manpower and a significant superiority in material and technical equipment, but the capabilities of the armed forces of the self-proclaimed republics are sufficient to wage a defensive war. Regardless of the final result, this war will not be “lightning fast,” but it will definitely be destructive and bloody.

The troops on both sides of the demarcation line are in a high degree of combat readiness, that is, a political decision to start full-scale military operations can be implemented in a short time, but it will not be possible to immediately stop them by political means.

The “Russian factor” will not play a significant role in this war: the armed forces of the self-proclaimed republics are almost entirely staffed by soldiers and officers with Ukrainian citizenship.

That is, it will be different " hybrid war": civilian, but with the participation of two professionally trained armies.

In such a war there will definitely not be a winner, but there will certainly be huge casualties. Our interlocutors estimate their possible scale at tens of thousands of people. At the same time, as military people, they only talk about combat losses. At the same time, the demarcation line runs through densely populated areas, with Donetsk, Lugansk and a number of smaller cities directly behind it.

According to the UN, as of April 1, 2016, there were about two thousand civilian deaths, with total casualties approaching ten thousand. But if you add to these statistics more than 3,600 missing people, the ratio of civilians to military among the dead could be one to three or higher. This means that the price of the war will be thousands of dead and tens of thousands of wounded civilians.

So there is only one conclusion, and a very simple one. A new “big” war in eastern Ukraine, no matter who started it and whoever celebrated victory in it, will be a deliberate crime.

But politicians and “public figures” on both sides of the demarcation line continue to escalate the situation.

“What is our ultimate goal: the return of territories without people, the return of people, or the return of territories with people. The most difficult thing is the last one,” says Deputy Minister for Occupied Territories Georgiy Tuka.

“Build an army, and in five years conquer it by military means,” suggests the head of the Donetsk regional military-civil administration Pavel Zhebrivsky.

“In the event of a serious aggravation at the front, a new mobilization will be announced immediately,” reports Alexander Turchynov, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council.

“Kyiv adheres to the military option for resolving the conflict. These are harbingers of full-fledged hostilities,” insists the Chairman of the People’s Council of the “DPR” Denis Pushilin.

“If Kyiv attacks us again, I can say one thing: let them not complain later when retreating to Kyiv. There will be no Minsk-3,” boasts the head of the “DPR” Alexander Zakharchenko.

A new big war will indeed not end with a truce. This is a geopolitical catastrophe, primarily for Ukraine.

18.10.2016, 08:28

The murder in Donetsk of the commander of the Sparta volunteer battalion, Lieutenant Colonel Arseny Pavlov, better known by his call sign “Motorola,” was regarded by many in the DPR as a declaration of war by Kiev. The head of the DPR, Alexander Zakharchenko, directly called Pavlov’s murder “a challenge to the entire republic” and promised that there would be no mercy for the killers. “As I understand it, Petro Poroshenko violated the truce and declared war on us,” he noted.

In Kyiv the signal was heard. On the morning of October 17, Ukrainian troops attempted an attack on the positions of DPR troops in the area of ​​​​the village of Leninskoye. As a representative of the DPR Ministry of Defense told reporters, after artillery and mortar preparation, the enemy “attacked our positions with forces up to a company.” He noted that nationalists and foreign mercenaries also took part in the attack. And this, alas, is not the only episode. According to the deputy commander of the operational command of the DPR, Eduard Basurin, over the past 24 hours, Ukrainian security forces violated the ceasefire 398 times, of which 336 times with the use of heavy artillery and mortars.

According to the command, the villages of Oktyabrsky, Sakhanka, Bezymennoye and Leninskoye in the south of the republic, the city of Yasinovataya, the village of Spartak, the villages of Aleksandrovka, Trudovskiye and Staromikhailovka, Gorlovka and Dokuchaevsk were under fire from the Ukrainian Armed Forces. “All data on violations of the Minsk agreements by the Ukrainian side and the location of prohibited weapons of the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been transferred to representatives of the OSCE mission and the JCCC,” Basurin noted.

The representative of the LPR defense department, Major Andrei Marochko, said that the Ukrainian military has intensified reconnaissance using unmanned aerial vehicles on the line of combat contact, and they not only conduct reconnaissance, but also drop explosive devices.

And although the leadership of the LPR and DPR emphasizes that despite the murder of Motorola and the provocations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the republics will continue to comply with the Minsk agreements, in the Donbass they are seriously talking about the fact that the current local clashes could soon escalate into full-scale hostilities.

How realistic is this, and what are the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the paramilitary formations of the DPR and LPR like today?

According to open data, the Armed Forces of Novorossiya consist of two army corps (AK) - the 1st (Donetsk) and the 2nd (Lugansk). There is very little information about them, but it is known that, for example, the People's Militia of the LPR includes separate 2nd and 4th brigades, one artillery and one tank brigade, a corps reconnaissance battalion, territorial defense battalions, etc. Armament - tanks T-64, BMP-1, BTR-80, self-propelled guns 2S1, BM-21 “Grad”, “Msta-B”, air defense system “Strela-10 M”, etc.

The 1st Army Corps of the Defense Ministry of the DPR includes: a separate special forces brigade "Vostok", a large role in the formation of which was played by employees of the "Alpha" detachment of the SBU department in the Donetsk region, a separate special forces brigade "Kalmius", a separate commandant regiment engaged in anti-terrorism and counter-sabotage activities, a number of army brigades, the intelligence department of the Main Headquarters of the DPR Defense Ministry, as well as the DPR Republican Guard, which reports directly to Zakharchenko. The latter consists of 8 battalions of varying levels of strength.

The DPR forces are armed with: MLRS (over 80 units), several T-90s, about 300 T-72s, 400 T-64s, about 400 units of BMP-2, etc., several hundred self-propelled guns and howitzers, more than 150 units ATGM "Konkurs", 120 units of ATGM "Fagot", as well as more than a thousand RPG-7, weapon. At the same time, the number of militias of the DPR and LPR is not disclosed.

As for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as Ukrainian military experts note, out of 268 thousand personnel of the Armed Forces, there are never more than 30 thousand at the forefront. During the war in Donbass, the Armed Forces of Ukraine suffered huge losses in equipment (at least 130 units of T-64B/BV tanks alone were destroyed, according to open data), however, as experts say, many times more of it remained than was lost - Soviet heritage enough to form new units, formations and even two new operational commands, in addition to the existing four - OK “West”, “East”, “South”, “North”. At the same time, “the creation of a larger number of new military units and formations does not lead to an increase in quality, since the shortage of personnel in the Ground Forces reaches 50%.”

However, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are constantly supported by Western instructors. According to the Chief of the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Viktor Muzhenko, four battalions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces have recently been transferred to NATO standards.

Ukraine has superiority in army numbers, but recently two army corps (AK) - the 1st (Donetsk) and the 2nd (Lugansk) have been constantly engaged in defensive activities. In the people's republics, command staff and tactical exercises are being conducted, in general, elementary army training has been and is ongoing, notes military expert Boris Rozhin (known online as Colonelcassad).

But it is clear that the DPR and LPR corps are committed to strategic defense. That is, if Kyiv goes on the offensive, the militias must meet the Ukrainian units, wear them out to the maximum and only then go on some kind of offensive.

So far, the positional war between the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the Donbass militia has been going on and continues to go on with periodic exacerbations. Thus, the recent battles near Kominternovo and settlement. Vodyanoye near Mariupol at the tactical level developed rather unsuccessfully for Ukraine. In general, we have been observing this situation for two years now, and, apparently, it will continue to develop. But we cannot consider the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the corps of the DPR and LPR as vacuums warring among themselves. If the situation escalates, external players will certainly increase assistance and military presence, which will lead to a “Korean” or “Vietnamese” war scenario, when the United States and Russia will directly stand behind the local armed forces. Much depends on politics, since Ukraine and Syria are part of the same conflict between the United States and Russia.

- Could there be any acceleration of events under the current US presidential administration?

Hardly. It is clear that the Minsk agreements are not being respected; there is only an imitation of their implementation in order to demonstrate that political process a solution to the conflict is still looming. But if the next US president wants to put an end to them, then we will most likely see a military solution to the issue: Ukraine will attempt to seize the DPR and LPR, and the people’s republics, after defensive actions, will try to expand their territories at the expense of neighboring regions.

Whatever the combat effectiveness of the DPR and LPR corps, Moscow always stands behind them, notes Researcher at the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, Chief Editor magazine "Arms Export" Andrey Frolov.

- If she does not want the collapse of the republics, then they will survive, no matter what offensive the Ukrainian Armed Forces organize. Therefore, it is not entirely correct to compare the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the army corps of the people’s republics, because suddenly the “north wind” may blow... But this kind of scheme only works when the local forces are something of themselves. But the armies of the DPR and LPR have come a long way lately. As a result, from formations that were chaotic and varied in motivation, combat readiness and equipment, they turned into brigades with a single command, headquarters, uniform, and weapons. But still, the weakness of the militia corps is that the LPR and DPR often fail to synchronize their actions in defense, not to mention the offensive. And the Ukrainians can probably take advantage of this.

- What are the current Armed Forces of Ukraine?

On the one hand, Ukrainian units seem to have forgotten the shock of losses and defeats, and their morale has nevertheless increased compared to 2015. But, paradoxically, the main weakness of the Ukrainian army is its numbers. The Ukrainian military budget, with such a number of mobilized fighters, does not allow them to properly train or supply them with military equipment and ammunition.

In my opinion, it is better for the Ukrainian Armed Forces to have 100 thousand well-armed and trained soldiers than 280 thousand incomprehensible ragamuffins who are still constantly experiencing supply problems. Now Ukrainians can only win the war using the “human waves” method, that is, by overwhelming the enemy with corpses, as Tehran did in the Iran-Iraq war. But it is clear that no one in Ukraine will agree to this.

- The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine constantly reports on the receipt of repaired equipment...

They repair Soviet equipment, but it is difficult to say what its actual condition is at the end. After all, it’s not because they have a good life that they constantly make homemade armored vehicles. In addition, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have a clear shortage of the most consumable ammunition - for MLRS, hand grenades, cartridges for small arms - the same SVD, etc. It is for this reason that Bulgarian ammunition is found in Ukraine... In general, after Minsk-2 The Ukrainian defense industry has done little to cover the obvious weaknesses of the army on our own. Moreover, this is explained not only by the lack of money, but also by lack of motivation.

- Representatives of the DPR have repeatedly reported about mercenaries in the ranks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces...

- Of course, there are a certain number of “soldiers of fortune” in Ukraine, but still there are fewer of them now than there were in 2014-2015. However, the mercenary factor in this war is clearly not the key one. If they exist, they are clearly incorporated into the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine or the National Guard, and such small units cannot turn the tide of hostilities.

As for the training of Ukrainian Armed Forces battalions according to NATO standards and so on, a lot has probably been done in a year and a half. But these are still separate units that have undergone rather superficial training at short-term courses, and it is clear that just as the Armed Forces of Ukraine had huge problems with competent officers, they still remain. Although this is partly compensated by the insufficient training of the DPR and LPR corps. But, I repeat, the militias have a direct border with Russia and a “northern wind.” And it is obvious that the people’s republics are more likely to win the resource war, because the delivery distance is shorter and the warehouses Russian army are not comparable with Ukrainian ones. Even if NATO buys weapons throughout Europe and supplies them to Ukraine.

I am always surprised by the magic phrase that many media like to quote - “training Ukrainian battalions according to NATO standards,” says Deputy Director of the Institute of Political and Military Analysis Alexander Khramchikhin. - Allegedly, such training is an option in computer game, will give the Ukrainian military plus five points to strength and three to endurance. This is simply funny, because I immediately want to ask the question: what kind of victories on land has the North Atlantic Alliance achieved?

The Ukrainian army retains some kind of combat capability only because it is not NATO, but Soviet. That's the only reason she can still fight. As soon as units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are fully trained according to NATO standards, they will stop fighting altogether. Naturally, now the Ukrainian Armed Forces have become stronger due to the fact that in the battles of 2014–2015 they acquired combat experience, which they did not have before 2014. On the other hand, they, of course, have weakened due to large losses in technology, which are not actually compensated for.

- Poroshenko occasionally personally accepts equipment transferred to the Armed Forces of Ukraine by the Ukrainian defense industry...

But it is clear that all new technology"appears by resuscitating Soviet reserves and rearranging parts and assemblies from one model to another. That is, the reserves of military equipment in Ukraine are, one way or another, decreasing.

As for the Donbass militias, recently they have apparently streamlined and structured their units under the leadership of Russian advisers, but if Ukraine wants, it will be able to crush the republics “massively.” What, in fact, we already saw in July-August 2014, when only Russian help prevented this. It could be exactly the same now, the only question is how ready Ukraine is to fight a full-scale war again.

Military expert Anatoly Nesmiyan (El-Murid) also believes that the current hostilities will not escalate into a full-scale war.

The fighting in Donbass is maintained in a more or less low-intensity mode and that’s all. Here the military component is inextricably linked with the political one. It is important for Russia to implement the Minsk agreements in order to at least count on a partial lifting of sanctions by the West. Kyiv is torn between Europe and the USA. In addition, Poroshenko cannot solve the problem with Ukrainian nationalists, who, in general, pose a fairly serious threat to the government, in addition, he cannot rely on the police and the army. All this ultimately affects the war in the Southeast.

Of course, the Americans and other NATO instructors trained separate army battalions, but from the point of view of combat operations this does not mean anything. Based on the experience of training local forces in Afghanistan and Iraq, it is clear that their programs have a pronounced military-police character. That is, guys trained according to their standards can carry out clean-up operations quite well, but they cannot participate in combined arms operations - their skills and motivation are different. The rest of the motley formations of the Ukrainian Armed Forces see no point in fighting at all, much less attacking.

The same story is with the Donbass militia. They cannot attack - the ideological militia has already been knocked out almost everything, and the part that is under arms today is more interested in salary. After all, most people joined the militia simply because there is no work, but in the corps at least they pay. Accordingly, the motivation of these people is different. They will defend and defend their territories, but they are unlikely to be able to conduct attacking actions.

- Judging by reports, combat aviation is slowly but still being restored in Ukraine. In particular, on October 15, the Ukrainian Armed Forces received three aircraft - the MiG-29, Su-27 and the Su-25 attack aircraft.

Yes, the Ukrainian Air Force received a small reinforcement during this time. And the Ukrainians can probably resume aviation flights, but the Air Force is a branch of the armed forces that supports the actions of ground units. Aviation by itself is not capable of carrying out tasks, especially Ukrainian aviation, which at best numbers a regiment. Whether there are planes or not is not important for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, because without a well-organized offensive on the ground there is no point in them.