When will it happen

Friday, April 13, 2029. This day threatened to be fatal for the entire planet Earth. At 4:36 GMT, asteroid Apophis 99942, weighing 50 million tons and with a diameter of 320 m, will cross the orbit of the Moon and rush towards Earth at a speed of 45,000 km/h. A huge, pockmarked block will contain the energy of 65,000 Hiroshima bombs - more than enough to wipe out a small country from the face of the Earth or rock a tsunami a couple of hundred meters high.

The name of this asteroid speaks for itself - that was the name of the ancient Egyptian god of darkness and destruction, but there is still a chance that it will not be able to fulfill its fatal destiny. Scientists are 99.7% sure that the rock will fly past the Earth at a distance of 30–33 thousand kilometers. In astronomical terms, this is something like a flea's jump, no larger than a round trip from New York to Melbourne, and much smaller than the orbital diameters of many geostationary communications satellites. After dusk, the population of Europe, Africa and Western Asia will be able to observe a celestial object similar to a medium-sized star crossing the area of ​​​​the sky where the constellation Cancer is located for a couple of hours. Apophis will be the first asteroid in the entire history of mankind that we will be able to clearly see with the naked eye. And then he will disappear - he will simply melt into the black expanses of space.

Maybe it will pass. But scientists have calculated: if Apophis is exactly 30,404.5 km from our planet, it should fall into

... gravitational " keyhole" A strip of space approximately 1 km wide, a hole comparable in size to the diameter of the asteroid itself, is a trap where the force of gravity of the Earth can turn the flight of Apophis in a dangerous direction, so that our planet will literally be in the crosshairs at the time of the next visit of this asteroid, which will take place exactly 7 years later - April 13, 2036.

The results of radar and optical tracking of Apophis, when it once again flew past our planet, made it possible to calculate the probability of it falling into the “keyhole”. In numerical terms, this chance is 1:45,000! “It's not an easy task to actually assess the hazard when the probability of an event is very low,” says Michael de Kay of the Center for Information Sharing and Hazard Assessment at Carnegie Mellon University. “Some believe that since the danger is unlikely, then it is not worth thinking about, while others, bearing in mind the seriousness of a possible catastrophe, believe that even the most insignificant probability of such an event is unacceptable.”

Former astronaut Rusty Schweickart has a lot to say about the objects that float in outer space—he was once one himself when he emerged from his spacecraft during the Apollo 9 flight in 1969. In 2001, Schweickart became one of the co-founders of the B612 Foundation and is now using it to put pressure on NASA, demanding that the agency do at least some action regarding Apophis, and as soon as possible. “If we miss this chance,” he says, “it will be criminal negligence.”

Let’s say that in 2029 the situation will not be in the best possible way. Then, if we don’t want an asteroid to crash into the Earth in 2036, we must deal with it on approach and try to move it tens of thousands of kilometers to the side. Let's forget about the great technical achievements that we see in Hollywood films - in fact, this task far exceeds the current capabilities of mankind. Take, for example, the ingenious method proposed in the famous “Armageddon”, released in 1998 - to drill a hole a quarter of a kilometer deep in an asteroid and detonate a nuclear charge right inside. So, technically, this is no easier to implement than time travel. In a real situation, when April 13, 2029 approaches, all we have to do is calculate the location of the meteorite fall and begin evacuating the population from the doomed region.

According to preliminary estimates, the place where Apophis fell falls on a strip 50 km wide, running through Russia, the Pacific Ocean, Central America and goes further into the Atlantic. The cities of Managua (Nicaragua), San Jose (Costa Rica) and Caracas (Venezuela) are located exactly on this strip, so they are in danger of a direct hit and complete destruction. However, the most likely place of impact is a point in the ocean several thousand kilometers from the west coast of America. If Apophis falls into the ocean, a crater 2.7 km deep and approximately 8 km in diameter will form in this place, from which tsunami waves will run in all directions. As a result, say, the coast of Florida will be hit by twenty-meter waves that will bombard the mainland for an hour.

However, it is too early to think about evacuation. After 2029, we will no longer have the opportunity to avoid a collision, but long before the fateful moment we can slightly knock Apophis off course - just enough so that it does not fall into the “keyhole”. According to calculations carried out by NASA, a simple “blank” weighing one ton, the so-called kinetic impactor, which should hit the asteroid at a speed of 8000 km/h, will do for this. A similar mission has already been carried out by NASA's Deep Impact space probe (by the way, its name is associated with another Hollywood blockbuster from 1998). In 2005, this device, by the will of its creators, crashed into the nucleus of the comet Tempel 1, and thus information was obtained about the structure of the surface of this cosmic body. Another solution is possible, when a spacecraft with ion propulsion, playing the role of a “gravitational tractor,” hovers over Apophis, and its - albeit insignificant - force of gravity slightly moves the asteroid from its fateful course.

In 2005, Schweickart urged NASA management to plan a rescue mission to install a radio transmitter on Apophis. Data regularly received from this device would confirm the forecasts for the development of the situation. With a favorable forecast (if an asteroid flies past the “keyhole” in 2029), the inhabitants of the earth could breathe a sigh of relief. In the event of a disappointing forecast, we would have enough time to prepare and send into space an expedition capable of averting the danger that threatens it from the Earth. To complete such a project, according to Schweikart's estimates, it could take about 12 years, but it is advisable to complete all rescue work by 2026 - only then can we hope that the remaining three years will be enough to show positive results from the barely noticeable impact on cosmic scales from our rescue ship.

In 1998, the US Congress instructed NASA to search for, record and track all asteroids with a diameter of at least 1 km in near-Earth space. The resulting Space Security Report describes 75% of the 1,100 objects believed to exist. (During these searches, Apophis, which did not reach the required size of 750 m, caught the eye of the researchers simply by luck.) None of the giants included in the “report”, fortunately, pose a danger to the Earth. "But in the remaining couple of hundred that we haven't been able to detect yet, anyone could be on the way to our planet," says former astronaut Tom Jones, a NASA asteroid-hunting consultant. In light of the current situation, the aerospace agency plans to expand the search criterion to a diameter of 140 m, that is, to capture into its network celestial bodies half the size of Apophis, which can nevertheless cause significant damage to our planet. More than 4,000 such asteroids have already been identified, and according to preliminary NASA estimates, there should be at least 100,000 of them.

As the procedure for calculating the 323-day orbit of Apophis showed, predicting the paths along which asteroids move is a troublesome business. Our asteroid was discovered in June 2004 by astronomers at the Arizona National Observatory Kitt Peak. A lot of useful information was obtained by amateur astronomers, and six months later, repeated professional observations and more accurate sighting of the object led to such results that JPL sounded the alarm. JPL's sanctum sanctorum, the Sentry asteroid tracking system (an ultra-powerful computer that calculates the orbits of near-Earth asteroids based on astronomical observations), was making predictions that looked increasingly ominous by the day. Already on December 27, 2004, the estimated chances of a collision expected in 2029 reached 2.7% - such figures caused a stir in the narrow world of asteroid hunters. Apophis took an unprecedented 4th step on the “Turin scale”.

However, the panic quickly subsided. The results of those observations that had previously eluded the attention of researchers were entered into the computer, and the system announced a reassuring message: in 2029, Apophis will fly past the Earth, but will miss by the slightest. Everything would be fine, but there was one unpleasant little thing left - that very “keyhole”. The tiny size of this gravitational “trap” (only 600 m in diameter) is both a plus and a minus. On the one hand, it would not be so difficult to push Apophis away from such an insignificant goal. If you believe the calculations, then by changing the speed of the asteroid by only 16 cm per hour, that is, by 3.8 m per day, in three years we will shift its orbit by several kilometers. It seems like nonsense, but it’s quite enough to bypass the “keyhole”. Such influences are quite capable of the already described “gravitational tractor” or “kinetic blank”. On the other hand, when we are dealing with such a tiny target, it is impossible to accurately predict which way Apophis will deviate from the keyhole. Today, forecasts of what the orbit will be by 2029 have an accuracy scale (in space ballistics it is called the “error ellipse”) of approximately 3000 km. As new data accumulates, this ellipse should gradually become smaller. In order to say with any certainty that Apophis is flying past, it is necessary to reduce the “ellipse” to a size of about 1 km. Without the necessary information, a rescue expedition may divert the asteroid to the side, or may unintentionally drive it into the hole itself.

But is it really possible to achieve the required forecasting accuracy? This task involves not only installing a transceiver on the asteroid, but also a mathematical model that is incomparably more complex than the one currently used. The new orbit calculation algorithm must also include such seemingly insignificant factors as solar radiation, terms added to account for relativistic effects, and gravitational influence from other nearby asteroids. In the current model, all these amendments have not yet been taken into account.

And finally, when calculating this orbit, another surprise awaits us - the Yarkovsky effect. It's extra small but sustainable effective force– its manifestation is observed in cases where the asteroid emits more heat from one side than from the other. As the asteroid turns away from the Sun, it begins to radiate into the surrounding space the accumulated surface layers warm. A weak, but still noticeable reactive force appears, acting in the direction opposite to the heat flow. For example, a twice as large asteroid called 6489 Golevka, under the influence of this force, has moved 16 km away from the calculated orbit over the past 15 years. No one knows how this effect will affect the trajectory of Apophis over the next 23 years. At the moment, we have no idea about the speed of its rotation, or the direction of the axis around which it could rotate. We don’t even know its outlines – but this information is absolutely necessary in order to calculate the Yarkovsky effect.

However, in 2013, NASA reported that the huge asteroid Apophis, which threatens the Earth, could collide with our planet in 2068. A scientific article was published, which was prepared by a group of researchers of cosmic phenomena, led by David Farnocchi. Scientists carry out their work at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, with the support of the University of Hawaii and the University of Pisa. In the process of scientific development, more than 20 so-called “keyholes” were identified, the influence of which on the asteroid Apophis could lead to a catastrophe, which scientists have postponed more than once.
Among these cosmic phenomena, there was one during which Apophis would not push away, but rather would be attracted to the Earth and, when he appeared on April 12, 2068, he might no longer miss it. Although the risk of a collision is not great, its probability is slightly higher than one in a million, scientists still have not ruled out this possibility.

Initial calculations showed that Apophis could collapse on Earth in 2029 or 2036, but they were subsequently not confirmed. However, passing by our planet, the space monster will change its orbit and return to it more than once.

Russian scientists have already managed to take the first steps towards saving the Earth. They offered new way protecting the planet from asteroids - knocking them off their trajectory with the help of attacks from other asteroids. To translate this idea into reality, a special laboratory for mathematical modeling of methods and methods of protection against asteroid and comet danger was created in Russia. Russian and foreign scientists take part in the work of the laboratory. The project is financed through a grant won, the amount of which is 150 million rubles.

Project manager David Eismont suggested that it is necessary to use a gravitational maneuver to accelerate a small asteroid and use it to shoot down Apophis, changing its trajectory. With the help of a gravitational maneuver and the gravity of the planet, the speed of a cosmic body can be significantly increased. By the way, this method is used to send spacecraft to the longest possible distances in the solar system without high costs fuel.

Thus, certain calculations were made according to which, in order to ensure a gravitational maneuver of an asteroid-projectile with a mass of 1.4 thousand tons and a diameter of 15 meters near the Earth, a small engine and about 1.2 tons of fuel are needed.

Scientists intend to launch a beacon apparatus on a Soyuz rocket and land it on a dangerous asteroid. The project of this lighthouse is currently under development. We are talking about two spacecraft - “Kaissa” and “Kapkan” (the first is for reconnaissance, the second is strike, with nuclear warheads). Scientists identified asteroid 2011 UK10 as the projectile.
Large-scale developments in this industry are also underway in the United States. The American HAIV program is noteworthy, the essence of which is to create nuclear asteroid interceptors. This program is aimed at creating protective technologies to ensure the safety of the planet from the consequences of an asteroid collision. HAIV itself is a spacecraft designed to penetrate an asteroid and explode there. That is, either the complete destruction of the object will occur, or it will be possible to move it from the trajectory of movement.

Another very interesting project was developed by the American company SEI. The essence of the project is to send small robots to an asteroid. By burrowing into the surface of an asteroid and throwing rock into space, these robots must change its trajectory.

Another American company has put forward a proposal to launch an infrared telescope into space to search for and track potentially dangerous asteroids.

Among international developments It is necessary to note the technology of painting celestial bodies, designed to protect the Earth from potential threats. The essence of the technology is to reduce the reflectivity of asteroids. To influence the movement of a space object, a special paint must be applied to its surface using a special space drone.

In addition, there are currently about 40 in various ways combating potentially dangerous celestial objects. In particular, we can call it a frontal impact high power, detonation of a nuclear charge.

Some projects that are in development also deserve attention. So, for example, the European Union plans to allocate about four million euros for the implementation of the NEO-Shield project, which involves the construction of a shield from asteroids. However, such construction will be very expensive - its cost is estimated at approximately 300 million euros. By the way, due to lack of funds, another project was frozen - “Don Quixote” (its goal was to send the Hidalgo satellite to the asteroid

The news arrived from St. Petersburg. Employees of the Department of Celestial Mechanics of St. Petersburg State University have prepared a report for the next Korolev Readings on Cosmonautics, which will be held at the end of January. It contains information that after the approach of the asteroid Apophis to the Earth in April 2029, its trajectory may change so that in the future this celestial body will pose a real threat.

“This convergence causes a significant scattering of possible trajectories, among them there are trajectories containing a convergence in 2051. The corresponding resonant returns contain many (about a hundred) possible collisions of Apophis with the Earth today, the most dangerous in 2068,” the report of St. Petersburg astronomers says.

Recall that the asteroid Apophis, named after the ancient Egyptian god who is trying to destroy the Sun, is currently main danger threatening humanity from space. More precisely, the main one known.

Its size is 325 meters (the Chelyabinsk meteorite, for comparison, reached 19 meters before entering the atmosphere). It was discovered in 2004. The discovery caused a stir: at first, astronomers estimated the probability of an asteroid colliding with the Earth quite high (2.7%), but soon adjusted the data. It is now reliably known that on April 13, 2029, this celestial body will fly at a distance of 38 thousand km from our planet (which, however, is 10 times less than the distance from the Earth to the Moon), but no one knows what will happen next.

The fact is that the Earth’s gravitational field can change the trajectory of Apophis if he gets into a “keyhole” - a very narrow region of space. And during one of the next returns, the “stone guest” will still collide with the Earth. 2068 is exactly the year that could become fatal for humanity.

So how likely is a collision?

By and large, astronomers from St. Petersburg State University did not report anything new. It has been said before that theoretically there is a threat of collision during subsequent approaches to the asteroid. But what is it like now? For clarification, AiF.ru turned to a senior researcher at the Research Department solar system Institute of Astronomy RAS to Sergei Naroenkov:

— The last optical observations of the asteroid Apophis were carried out in January 2015. After this, it was not observed, since it is located at a considerable distance from the Earth. And to observe it, large telescopes are required - with a diameter of 2 meters or more.

As for the probability of its collision with the Earth, mathematical modeling shows that it is less than 0.0009%. Here's how it's calculated.

The asteroid Apophis is in such an orbit that it will periodically approach the Earth over hundreds of years. Astronomers call such encounters resonant returns. The question is at what minimum distance from the Earth the asteroid will fly and how its orbit will change after the next approach. It is now known for sure that there will be no collision in 2029. But the asteroid’s orbit will change in some way, and the nature of its change is not yet reliably known. In such cases, scientists use mathematical modeling. They create sets of virtual objects whose orbits are similar to the nominal orbit of the asteroid (that is, the set of its possible trajectories), but at the same time have some changes in the parameters.

The number of such virtual objects can reach tens of millions. And if you study them all, you can estimate the probability of a collision with the Earth. In this way, it was calculated that the total probability of an Apophis collision is 0.000009. That is 9 chances out of a million. This means that when mathematical modeling 100 years ahead, only 9 virtual objects out of 1 million collided with the Earth in different years. And everyone else flew past at a considerable distance.

How will we be saved?

A more accurate forecast can only be given after 2029, when Apophis will already fly past the Earth. His future trajectory will become clear. But what to do if the forecast turns out to be the worst?

Scientists consider it inappropriate to blow up a celestial body - many small ones will arise from one large object, and the affected area will also increase. Therefore, the main idea is to move the asteroid to the side and adjust its orbit.

There are enough offers. For example, cover one side of Apophis with white paint. It will reflect the radiation of the Sun, and the trajectory will change. One American student, who won the corresponding project competition, proposed wrapping the asteroid with highly reflective film. This must be done by a satellite specially launched to Apophis. The goal is the same - to deflect an object with pressure sunlight.

But the most promising project is a tractor or tug. If you land a spacecraft with jet engines on an asteroid and turn them on, the celestial body will shift from orbit. Such projects exist on paper. If it comes to a real threat, scientists and engineers will have a plan of action.

The famous asteroid Apophis, which has been talked about a lot over the past decade, will come very close to Earth in 2029, and in 2068 it may even hit our planet, causing terrible destruction. These calculations were carried out by employees of the Department of Celestial Mechanics of St. Petersburg state university.

The report states that in April 2029, a huge rocky block will pass by the Blue Planet at a distance of 38 thousand kilometers. And the distance between the Earth and the Moon, for comparison, is 384 thousand kilometers, that is, ten times more.

“This convergence causes a significant scattering of possible trajectories, among them there are trajectories containing a convergence in 2051. The corresponding resonant returns contain many (about a hundred) possible collisions of Apophis with the Earth today, the most dangerous in 2068,” experts note.

Before the possibly fateful day of 2068, Apophis will come close to us three more times: in 2044 it will fly up to the Earth at 16 million kilometers, seven years later the distance will be more dangerous - 760 thousand kilometers, and in 2069 the distance between objects will stop at 6 million kilometers.

It is worth saying that NASA experts at one time said that there is a possibility of Apophis falling to Earth in 2068.

About the asteroid

Apophis was discovered in 2004 by the American Kitt Peak Observatory. The diameter of this celestial body is about 325 meters. Initially, astronomers calculated that there was a fairly high chance that the asteroid would fall to Earth in 2029, but after additional research they changed their minds. On April 13, in the appointed year, it will approach our planet at a dangerous distance, but still there will be no collision.

Later, experts stated that after approaching the Earth in 2029, Apophis may slightly change the orbit of its movement, and the next time it will fall on us. But there is one condition: the asteroid must fly through a certain “keyhole,” which is a narrow region of outer space. Several years ago, astronomers believed that the passage of Apophis through such a “well” would lead to disaster in 2036. And a little later they established that the probability of this event is only one in a million.

The consequences of the fall of Apophis to Earth

NASA experts have calculated that the power of the explosion from the fall of the asteroid will be 506 Mt, although the original figure was much higher. For example, the energy release during the fall of the legendary Tunguska meteorite in 1908 is estimated at only 10-40 megatons, and the power of the explosion of the deadliest thermonuclear Soviet bomb in human history, the Tsar Bomba, was 58 megatons. As you can see, Apophis’s indicators are much more serious.

The consequences largely depend on the composition of the space object, the location and angle of its impact. One way or another, an area of ​​thousands of square kilometers will be practically destroyed, but there is no need to talk about a global catastrophe. If Apophis falls into the sea or a large lake, a gigantic tsunami will follow, which will wipe out everything in the territory of nearby settlements, there will be many casualties. When it falls onto land, a crater with a diameter of about 6 kilometers is formed.

In 2029, the asteroid Apophis will pass 10 times closer to the planet than the distance from the Earth to the Moon (38 thousand out of 384 thousand kilometers) Illustration Depositphotos/PhotoXPress.ru

At the XLIII Korolev Academic Readings on Cosmonautics on January 29 – February 1, 2019 in Moscow, a report by L.L. Sokolova, N.A. Petrova, B.B. Eskina, G.A. Kuteeva with the intriguing title: “Approaches of dangerous asteroids to the Earth.” In particular, it examines several hypothetical options for the development of events after the approach of the Apophis asteroid to the Earth in 2029. The abstract of the report does not indicate the likelihood of such collisions. However, this was enough for the alarmist wave to rise once again.

Serpent Devouring the Sun

Here, for example, are typical excerpts from information messages RIA Novosti agency and Mail.ru portal:

The “apocalyptic” asteroid Apophis, which scientists from NASA discovered in 2004, may fall to Earth in 2068. And in 2029, the asteroid Apophis will pass 10 times closer to the planet than the distance from the Earth to the Moon (38 thousand out of 384 thousand km). This conclusion was reached by scientists from the Department of Celestial Mechanics of St. Petersburg State University in a report for the Moscow Korolev Readings on Cosmonautics”;

“A unique feature of this asteroid is its precisely established close approach to the Earth on April 13, 2029, at a distance of 38 thousand km (the Moon is 384 thousand km away from the Earth). This convergence causes a significant scattering of possible trajectories, among them there are trajectories containing a convergence in 2051”;

“The collision of Apophis with the Earth can lead to a powerful explosion or tsunami. Initially, NASA scientists estimated the power of a possible explosion at 1,480 megatons (Mt), then when the size of the asteroid was clarified, this figure dropped to 506 Mt. For comparison: the energy of the explosion of the “Little” nuclear bomb over Hiroshima on August 6, 1945, according to various estimates, ranges from 13 to 18 kilotons... If an asteroid falls into the sea or a large lake, there is a great danger of a destructive tsunami”...

For the first time, astronomers started talking about Apophis (in ancient Egyptian mythology, a huge serpent living in the darkness of the underworld and trying to destroy the Sun) in 2004. It was then that this asteroid was discovered. According to various estimates, its dimensions range from 270 to 390 m, its mass is 260 million tons. Its chances of colliding with the Earth in 2029 (on Friday, April 13, when it will approach our planet for the first time) were initially estimated as 1 in 37. However, American researchers subsequently ruled out the possibility of an asteroid colliding with the Earth in 2029: Apophis will pass close to our planet at a distance of about 29.5 thousand km.

Now, according to updated calculations, the distance of Apophis from the Earth will be even greater - 38 thousand km. Which, however, is also almost close by cosmic standards.

Nine chances in a million

Of course, the main thing that worries the interested public is what is the likelihood that Apophis will collide with the Earth? Which is not surprising. The impact force with an asteroid density of 3000 kg/m3 and an atmospheric entry speed of 12.6 km/s can range from 506 Mt to 1.5 Gt. For comparison: the power of the explosion of the Tunguska meteorite is estimated at 2-20 Mt (about a million tons of dust remained in the atmosphere at that time - 20-30% of the total mass of the meteorite - and about 30 million tons of nitrogen oxides); the explosion of the Krakatoa volcano in 1883 was equivalent to approximately 200 Mt.

The diameter of the crater during a possible collision of Apophis with the Earth is about 6 km. Casualties and destruction, of course, cannot be avoided. But the good news is that the so-called asteroid winter will not come; our blue planet, groaning, will still digest this cataclysm.

However, estimates of the likelihood of such a development of events are also constantly “walking” and being refined.

As the BBC reported in 2010, NASA estimated the probability of Apophis hitting the Earth in 2036 as 1 in 250 thousand, in 2068 it is even less - one in 330 thousand.

Note that, according to some data, American specialists can track objects the size of a baseball at an altitude of up to 100 km. At the same time, as Yuri Makarov, director of the Department of Strategic Planning and Organization of Space Activities of the Roscosmos state corporation, said on January 15, 2019, “at the moment, the number of space debris objects larger than 1 cm in size is, according to various estimates, from 600 to 700 thousand.” The Interfax agency also quotes the words of the scientific director of the Institute of Astronomy of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Boris Shustov: “On average, up to five maneuvers have to be done per year to evade the International Space Station from space “junk.”

But in the case of an asteroid, we are dealing with a completely different scale of the problem - literally and figuratively.

“The latest optical observations of the asteroid Apophis were carried out in January 2015,” Sergei Naroenkov, candidate of physical and mathematical sciences, senior researcher at the Institute of Astronomy of the Russian Academy of Sciences, commented for NG on the scenarios of Apophis’ approach to the Earth. – After that, it was not observed, since it is located at a considerable distance from the Earth and large telescopes with a diameter of 2 m or more are required for observation. Mathematical modeling shows that the probability of a collision between the Apophis asteroid and the Earth is less than 0.000009. The news circulated in the media that an asteroid may collide with the Earth is not true.

The asteroid Apophis is in such an orbit that it will periodically approach the Earth over hundreds of years. Such encounters are called resonant returns. The only question is at what minimum distance to the Earth the asteroid will fly and how its orbit will change after the next approach to the Earth.

It is now known for sure that the asteroid Apophis will fly by on April 13, 2029 at a distance of 38 thousand km, but a collision of the asteroid with the Earth is not expected. After such a rapprochement, its orbit will change in some way, and the nature of the change is not yet reliably known.”

But mathematical probability is by no means an insurance policy. When on February 10, 2009, over the northern part of Siberia, at an altitude of 790 km above the earth, a collision occurred between two artificial satellites, the Russian Cosmos 2251 and the American Iridium 33, even experts found it difficult to immediately assess the likelihood of such an event - it was so vanishingly small. But it still happened... So we still have to estimate the likelihood and consequences for the Earth of a collision with Apophis.

“Therefore, scientists, when mathematically modeling the movement of asteroids, use sets of virtual objects whose orbits are similar to the nominal orbit of an asteroid (a set of possible trajectories), but at the same time have some changes in orbital parameters. The spread of changes in orbital parameters is taken, as a rule, from an assessment of the accuracy of the asteroid’s orbit, explains Sergei Naroenkov. – The number of virtual objects when studying the movement of an asteroid can reach tens of millions of pieces. And if they study the evolution of such a set of virtual objects for a collision with the Earth, they already talk about the probability of a collision. For example, the total probability of Apophis colliding is 0.000009. This means that when modeling 100 years into the future, only 9 objects out of 1,000,000 collided with the Earth in different years, and all other virtual objects flew past the Earth at a considerable distance.”

And yet, what can earthly civilization oppose to a hypothetical invasion of space objects such as the Apophis asteroid?

In 2009, the then head of Roscosmos, Anatoly Perminov, said that Russian specialists would soon hold a meeting to discuss the details of the space mission to the Apophis asteroid. At the same time, Perminov unexpectedly announced that plans were being developed to create a spacecraft that should change the flight trajectory of Apophis in order to finally eliminate even the minimal possibility of its collision with the Earth.

In principle, there are not many feasible options. Why, there’s actually only one. Back in 1999, Anatoly Mikisha and Mikhail Smirnov, employees of the Institute of Astronomy of the Russian Academy of Sciences, performed calculations according to which for an asteroid with a diameter of 1 km, the corrective impulse is about 1 kt when the asteroid is deflected by a nuclear explosion. Interestingly, such an impact must be carried out no later than 1.6 years before the predicted impact. And this can be not only a nuclear impact, but, for example, the creation of thrust from the evaporating substance of an asteroid. But as the diameter of the asteroid grows, there is practically no alternative to a nuclear charge. “It is possible to correct the movement of a small planet about 10 km in size only by carrying out a nuclear explosion near its surface,” noted Mikisha and Smirnov in the journal Vestnik RAS (No. 4, 1999).

And even earlier, in 1993, their colleagues from the Space Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences Valentin Etkin and Stanislav Rodionov warned: “The International Astronomical Union sent out a circular on October 15, 1992 warning that comet Swift-Tuttle could hit the Earth during its next passage on August 14, 2126 of the year. This conclusion follows from the most accurate calculations of the comet's orbit. But due to a number of not so accurately predictable corrections from the interaction of the comet with the giant planets, the probability of such a collision is assumed to be 10-4, although this value is considered to be quite large.”

And then two respected physicists noted: “In reality, it will be possible to meet comet Swift-Tuttle in the Saturn region four years before its expected impact with the Earth. The required nuclear charge is estimated at 10–100 Mt. If we organize a meeting in 2126, when the comet will be at a minimum distance from the Sun 15 days before hitting Earth, then the nuclear charge should be about 100 times more powerful.”

“People's lives are at risk. We would rather spend several hundred million dollars and create a system that will allow us to avoid a collision than sit and wait for this to happen and thousands of people to die,” Anatoly Perminov confidently stated in 2009.

And ten years later, in January 2019, Roscosmos, together with the Russian Academy of Sciences, proposed developing a national project dedicated to space activities, which also included a program to combat space threats. This includes monitoring orbital debris and destroying asteroids approaching the planet. The issue is financing. Roscosmos, of course, understands that such projects are “perceived as some kind of exotic.”

There are three very precise statements made as if specifically to illustrate this situation. And they were made around the same time:

Nobel laureate, academician Lev Landau:“Scientists must always remember that they sit on the necks of the working people. Science is an expensive thing, it should only be done by people who benefit science. But unfortunately, many people simply use science. So many fake jobs! And their authors succeed”;

writer, philosopher, futurologist Stanislav Lem:“Without a doubt, scientists will first need to “educate” an entire generation of leaders who will agree to reach deep enough into the government’s pocket and, moreover, to achieve goals that are so suspiciously reminiscent of traditional science fiction themes”;

Academician Georgy Flerov:“Explain to important superiors scientific problem it is necessary not in the right way, but in the way that will be clear to him. This is a white lie...

And yet - what should we do with Apophis?

In any case, as NG expert Sergei Naroenkov emphasizes, “the estimates of other experts show that the likelihood of a collision is negligible. A more accurate forecast about the possible movement of the Apophis asteroid can only be given after 2029 after its close approach to the Earth.”

It only remains to add that almost all currently known asteroids - several tens of thousands - are located between the orbits of Mars and Jupiter, in the so-called asteroid belt. But of all this abundance of small planets, only a few hundred have been strictly proven to have orbits that intersect or dangerously approach the orbit of the Earth. That's quite enough too...

>Asteroid Apophis

Apophis - asteroid approaching Earth: description and characteristics with photos, detection, name, forecasts for an asteroid collision with a planet, NASA research.

The asteroid Apophis was discovered by the Kitt Peak Observatory in Arizona in 2004 and was named 2004 MN4. In 2015, on June 19, it acquired its own name - Apophis, under which it gained worldwide fame. The possibility of a collision in 2029, after the asteroid passed Earth in January 2013, has been refuted by NASA representatives working at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, and they also give an extremely low probability of a similar catastrophe in 2036.

The history of the origin of the name of the asteroid Apophis

The asteroid got its name in honor of the ancient Greek destroyer creature, the huge snake Apophis. According to legend, he lived in the underworld, in absolute darkness and, as a result, could not stand sunlight. Therefore, during the night transition he made constant attempts to destroy it. This choice of name for the asteroid by scientists is not accidental - small planets traditionally receive the names of gods from Greek, Roman or Egyptian mythology. R. Tackett and D. Tolen, explorers of the cosmic depths who first discovered the asteroid, chose a name for it by analogy with the negative character of the series “Stargate SG-1” Apophis, in turn, borrowed from the mythology of ancient Egypt. Apophis will approach the Earth in 2029, which will lead to another change in its orbital classification.

Orbit and close encounters of Apophis

According to the classification, the asteroid is in the aten group. Its approach to the Earth's orbit occurs at a point that approximately corresponds to April 13. The latest data predicts Apophis approaching the Earth in 2029 at a distance of 36,830 km to the center of the Earth (according to another version, 38,400 km).

Radar observations ruled out the possibility of a collision in 2029, but due to the inability to obtain accurate initial data, there was a possibility of a disaster in 2036 and subsequent years. According to the results of various researchers, the mathematical probability is in the range of 2.2 10−5 and 2.5 10−5. The highest probability is in 2039, in subsequent years it is much lower. In 2004, the danger on the Turin scale was rated 4, which became a Guinness record at that time, but already in August 2006 the forecast was reduced to 0.

Thanks to positional observations of the asteroid published in October 2009, from two-meter telescopes at the Mauna Kea and Kitt Peak observatories for the period from June 2004 to January 2008, a recalculation was made, which made it possible to reduce the likelihood of contact with the Earth. If earlier the probability was equal to 1:45,000, then after recalculation it dropped to 1:250,000.

After the asteroid's approach to Earth, January 9, 2013 at minimum distance, which amounted to 14 million 460 thousand km (slightly less than 1/10 of the distance to the Sun), scientists clarified the weight and volume of Apophis. It is estimated that it is approximately 75% more than previously announced. In 2013, there will be no collision of an asteroid with the Earth, NASA scientists have determined.

Characteristics of the asteroid Apophis

The Herschel Space Observatory has published new data about the asteroid Apophis. According to previous estimates, its diameter was estimated at 270 ± 60 meters. New data: 325 ± 15 meters. An increase in diameter by 20% increases the volume by 70% of the mass of the celestial body (assuming homogeneity). Light falling on the surface of an asteroid is reflected by 23%.

Possible consequences of the failed Apophis collision

According to NASA's initial estimates, an impact with the asteroid would have caused an explosion of 1,480 megatons of TNT, which was reduced to 880 and then to 506 megatons after clarification of the size. To estimate the size of a possible disaster, compare:

• Tunguska meteorite – 10-40 Mt.
• Volcano Krakatoa (1883) – 200 Mt.
• “Tsar Bomba” (explosion on October 30, 1961 at the “Dry Nose” nuclear testing site) - 57 Mt.
• “Baby” over Hiroshima (exploded by the Americans over Hiroshima in 1945, August 6) – 13-18 Mt.

The destructive effect of the impact explosion depended on the angle and location of impact, as well as the density and composition of the asteroid. The destruction would be enormous, covering an area of ​​more than 1000 square meters. km without causing global long-term changes. True, there would be no “asteroid winter” effect.

Model of a hypothetical collision between the Apophis asteroid and the Earth (diameter 270 m, density 3000 kg/m3, entry speed into the atmosphere 12.6 km/s):

• The height of destruction is 49.5 km.
• Released energy – 1717 Mt.
• The diameter of the resulting crater is 5.97 km.
• Earthquake 6.5 Richter.
• Wind speed - 792 m/s.

As a result, both fortified and unfortified buildings, metro tunnels would collapse, cracks would form in the ground, etc. If a space wanderer got into large bodies of water (sea or large lakes, such as Michigan, Ontario, Ladoga or Baikal), there were would be a destructive tsunami. At a distance of 300 km from the epicenter of the collision of the asteroid with the Earth, all populated areas would be destroyed, completely wiped off the face of the earth. After updating the data, due to the larger volume and weight of the celestial body, the expected destruction would be even greater.

Spacecraft observations of the asteroid Apophis

Scientists have proposed, for a more accurate assessment of the trajectory, mass and composition of the asteroid, to send an automatic interplanetary station to it, to install a radio beacon there, allowing one to calculate the correlation of its coordinates in time, as well as more accurately determine the composition and density of the asteroid’s substance. This will allow for a more accurate calculation of orbital elements, gravitational perturbations of the orbit from the influence of other planets, and ultimately, an updated forecast of a collision with the Earth will be obtained.

Planetary Society USA in 2008 a competition was announced for best project, to create a small AWS to be sent to Apophis. 37 initiative teams representing 20 countries of the world took part in it.

A visit to Apophis is considered one of the objectives of the ESA Europe Don Quixote project. A similar goal is pursued by the Apophis-P apparatus from the Institute of Space Research of the Russian Academy of Sciences and Roscosmos. It was also planned to create “Apophis-soil” to return the asteroid soil.

Elimination of a possible threat from the Apophis asteroid

Perhaps the most exotic option proposed by the international scientific community is to wrap Apophis in a highly reflective film. This should have caused the asteroid's orbit to change under the influence of sunlight pressure.

Roscosmos proposed developing its own project to prevent a collision with the Apophis asteroid. According to the statement of Anatoly Perminov, it can be determined that the leadership was counting on the creation of a spacecraft to remove the asteroid from a dangerous orbit. At the same time, it was not planned to use nuclear weapons. As he said: no explosions. It was supposed to involve in cooperation international institutions and organizations. As the leader put it, we're talking about about the lives of billions of people, so saving is not acceptable here. It was expected to spend more than half a billion dollars on the project. After updated forecasts that reject the possibility of a catastrophe, the project will most likely not be developed.

NASA statement about the asteroid Apophis

NASA has announced the almost complete exclusion of the possibility of a collision between Apophis and the Earth in 2036. This conclusion is based on observations of the asteroid on January 9, 2013, when it passed from Earth at a distance of 14.46 million km.

According to the head of the laboratory's division for the study of objects flying towards the Earth, Don Yeomans, the probability of a collision is now less than 1/1,000,000, which makes it possible to exclude a catastrophe in 2036. Previously, in 2029, this probability was about 2.7%.

Also, thanks to these findings, fears have gone away that due to its approach to Earth in 2029, the asteroid’s orbit will change to a more critical one in 2036.